Kelly Criterion betting calculator


The Kelly Citerion calculator calculates:

Calculating the optimal stake according to the Kelly criterion
The Kelly criterion calculates your optimal stake based on the size of your bank relative to the difference between a selection's price and its actual probability of winning (ie relative to the "value" in the price). In this example, you have a bank of £250 and want to back a selection priced at 2.22 because you believe that it has a 50% chance of winning. The Kelly Criterion calculator recommends an optimal stake of £22.54.

Calculating the optimal stake according to the Kelly Criterion

Note that if the selection were priced at 2.00, the Kelly criterion would recommend a stake of £0.00, in other words "no bet". Another way of looking at this is to consider that the rational better would decline the offer of evens for heads in a coin toss. If you are using a betting exchange price, also remember to use Actual Pricer to obtain the selection's effective price after commission.


Start Your Free Trial Now!

Copyright © 2012, Arb Cruncher. All Rights Reserved.