Draw No Bet betting - hedge against the draw

Arb Cruncher calculates how much you place on the win and the draw in order to ensure that you earn a profit from a win and get your total stake back from a draw. It also outputs an Implied DNB Price that allows you to compare the overall value of your bet with the Draw No Bet or levelball handicap prices offered by the bookies.

Example 1
Manchester United are playing at home to a depleted Chelsea team in the first leg of a cup tie, and you feel that Chelsea will not really try to win the match, but just slog it out in the hope of a draw. Although you believe that a home win is the most likely result, you would also like to cover yourself against the draw.

In this example, the best price for the Reds is 2.38 with a small Mancunian online bookmaker that has imposed a max stake limit of £750. The draw is best-priced on Betfair at 3.30.
Such is your confidence in your analysis that you want to place the full £750 on the Reds. However, you don't know how much to place on the draw in order to ensure that you break even in the event of a stalemate, after commission.

Draw No Bet instructs you to place £343.25 on the draw. This is the exact amount that will generate enough profit to cover your stake on Man Utd if the match does indeed end as a bore draw.

The Implied DNB Price shows that this is the same as backing Man United at 1.63 in the Draw No Bet or levelball Asian handicap markets.

Example 2
You have read a convincing tip to back Fiorentina in the Draw No Bet market away to Lecce at 4/7 (Stan James). However, you just want to check whether you can get better value than 4/7 by creating your own DNB bet by backing both the Win and the Draw. In this example, both eventualities are best-priced on Betfair at 2.36 and 3.25 respectively.

The screenshot below shows you how to divide a Total Stake of £100.00 between the Win and the Draw so that you would break even with a Draw. Draw No Bet instructs you to place £69.23 on the win and £30.77 on the draw. If the team wins, you will collect a net profit of £60.37, after commission. In the event of a draw, you break even with no commission payable.

The key figure in this screenshot is the Implied DNB Price of 1.60, which is about 11% better value than the 4/7 (1.57) being offered by Stan James, even after commission. As value is the key to successful long-term betting, you would be a fool not to take the better DNB value available in the Match Odds market on Betfair. Note that your winnings at Stan James would have been only £57.14.

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