Draw No Bet betting - hedge against the draw
Arb Cruncher calculates how much you place on the win and the draw in order to ensure that you earn a profit from a win and get your total stake back from a draw. It also outputs an
Implied DNB Price that allows you to compare the overall value of your bet with the Draw No Bet or levelball handicap prices offered by the bookies.
Example 1
Manchester United are playing at home to a depleted Chelsea team in the
first leg of a cup tie, and you feel that Chelsea will not really try to
win the match, but just slog it out in the hope of a draw. Although you
believe that a home win is the most likely result, you would also like to
cover yourself against the draw.
In this example, the best price for the Reds is
2.38
with a small Mancunian online bookmaker that has imposed a
max stake limit of
£750. The draw is
best-priced on Betfair at
3.30.
Such is your confidence in your analysis that you want to
place the full
£750 on the Reds. However,
you don't know how much to place on the draw in order to ensure
that you break even in the event of a stalemate, after commission.
Draw No Bet instructs you to place
£343.25
on the draw. This is the exact amount that will generate enough
profit to cover your stake on Man Utd if the match does indeed
end as a bore draw.
The
Implied DNB Price shows that this is the same as backing
Man United at
1.63 in the Draw No Bet or levelball Asian
handicap markets.
Example 2
You have read a convincing tip to back Fiorentina in the Draw
No Bet market away to Lecce at
4/7 (Stan
James). However, you just want to check whether you can get
better value than
4/7 by creating your own
DNB bet by backing both the Win and the Draw. In this example,
both eventualities are best-priced on Betfair at
2.36
and
3.25 respectively.
The screenshot below shows you how to divide a Total Stake
of
£100.00 between the Win and the
Draw so that you would break even with a Draw.
Draw
No Bet instructs you to place
£69.23
on the win and
£30.77 on the draw.
If the team wins, you will collect a net profit of
£60.37,
after commission. In the event of a draw, you break even with
no commission payable.
The key figure in this screenshot is the
Implied DNB Price
of
1.60, which is about 11% better value than the
4/7
(
1.57) being offered by Stan James, even
after commission. As value is the key to successful long-term
betting, you would be a fool not to take the better DNB value
available in the Match Odds market on Betfair. Note that your
winnings at Stan James would have been only
£57.14.